The Brasileirão is reaching its final stretch and the teams at the bottom of the table are starting to do the math. Betfair analyzed all 20 teams and their chances of escaping Z-4.
Furthermore, other clubs dream of titles and places in the Libertadores and Sudamericana next season.
Therefore, all Brasileirão teams rely on mathematical calculations to try to achieve their goals.
For Betfair, the four teams with the greatest chance of relegation are: Coritiba, with a 21% probability (odd of 1.11 – for each real bet, if there is a drop, the return will be R$1.11).
Next, América-MG appears with 19% (odd of 1.2). In third comes Santos, a team that never fell to the second division.
The Baixada Santista team currently has a 15% chance of falling to Series B (odds of 1.53).
Vasco da Gama, a traditional team from Rio de Janeiro that has just returned to the first division, completes the list with a 14% probability of falling (odds of 1.67).
Check out the full list of teams and their chances of relegation:
- Coritiba – 21%;
- América – 19%;
- Santos – 15%;
- Vasco – 14%;
- Goiás e Bahia– 9%;
- Corinthians e Internacional – 4%;
- Cuiabá and Cruzeiro- 2%;
- São Paulo, Atlético-MG, Fortaleza and Athletico-PR – less than 1% chance.
Six teams guaranteed in 2024 in Series A; title chance
Six teams are already breathing a sigh of relief, as they are no longer in danger of falling to the second division. Botafogo, Palmeiras, Grêmio, Bragantino, Flamengo and Fluminense are guaranteed in 2024 in Series A and their focus is on the competition title.
Shot in first place with 51 points, Bruno Lage’s Botafogo appears with a 57% chance of winning the title (odds of 1.44).
Palmeiras, second-placed with 41, has a 24% chance (odd of 3.4), while Flamengo, third placed, has an 8% chance (odd of 11.0), according to Betfair analysis.
Ranking of the teams most likely to win the Brasileirão 2023 title:
- Botafogo 57%;
- Palmeiras 24%;
- Flamengo 8%
- Grêmio 4%;
- Fluminense e Bragantino com 2%;
- Athletico-PR and Fortaleza com 1%;
The remaining 11 teams combined have less than a 1% chance of winning Series A of the Brazilian Championship in 2023, according to Betfair.
About Betfair
One of the largest online sports betting providers in the world, Betfair is an official sponsor of the Cruzeiro and Palmeiras teams.
The company pioneered the offering of peer-to-peer betting and manages a full suite of sports betting, entertainment events and online gaming products for more than four million customers over the age of 18 around the world.
Thanks to its cutting-edge technology, the platform offers a wide catalog of products that allow you to bet with your own odds and odds offered by other users.