After the death of Pope Francis, the online betting market accelerated. The Polymarket platform registered, in two days, a movement of more than R$ 30.8 million. This amount represents bets on who will be the new leader of the Catholic Church. The official conclave, which elects the successor, begins between 15 and 20 days after the death of the Pope.
New Pope: Pietro Parolin leads the way
Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the most likely candidate, according to OddsChecker. Parolin, a 70-year-old Italian, has served as the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013. He joined the diplomatic service in 1986 and has excelled in negotiations with countries including China, Vietnam and the Middle East.
Luis Antonio Tagle emerges strong in the betting
Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is the second favorite. Tagle was born in 1957 and is the current archbishop of Manila. Named a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012, he advocates social justice, the fight against poverty and interreligious dialogue. His name has also frequently appeared among the likely successors to Francis.
Other cardinals also gain prominence
Peter Turkson of Ghana is the third most likely candidate. Turkson is 76 years old and has served as Archbishop of Cape Coast. He also debates issues such as human rights and economic justice. Analysts believe that Turkson can continue progressive reforms.
Matteo Zuppi has advanced in the race among the favorites. The Italian cardinal presides over the Italian Episcopal Conference and is known for his progressive stance. Zuppi has also represented the Pope on peace missions. He has visited Kiev, Moscow, Washington and Beijing on behalf of the Vatican.
Hungary’s Peter Erdo rounds out the list. Erdo, 72, is seen as a conservative and heads the Esztergom-Budapest archdiocese. His election could mark a shift in the church’s policies after years of reforms under Francis.
Angelo Scola, 83, and Marc Ouellet, 80, are among the betting options. They are over the voting age limit, but are still eligible to receive votes in the conclave. There are also bets on the name chosen by the next Pope. “Francis” is in the lead, followed by “Benedicto”, “Leo” and “Urbano”.
How the conclave works
The conclave brings together cardinals under the age of 80 from various parts of the world, including Brazil. There are 135 electors eligible to vote and be voted for. Finally, to elect the new Pope, at least two-thirds of the total votes are required.