After the death of Pope Francis, foreign bookmakers registered significant growth in the market focused on choosing the new leader of the Catholic Church.
This segment has become one of the main ones in the betting industry, mainly because the conclave, an elective process that brings together the college of cardinals of the Roman Curia, occurs rarely. In addition, the confidential nature of this process generates speculation and increases the bets, as identifying the favorites requires a lot of analysis.
According to information from specialized websites, the expectation is that the volume of bets made until the announcement of the new pope will exceed the R$100 million mark.
By April 23, two days after Francisco’s death, the Polymarket betting platform had already recorded a movement of over US$5.4 million (around R$30.6 million at the exchange rate for the period).
Last Thursday, May 1, the amount rose to US$ 12.1 million (R$ 68.6 million). The definition of Francis’ successor, through the conclave, will begin on May 7 with the participation of the cardinals.
Fragmentation and unpredictability mark the scenario
According to Polymarket, the main name in bookmakers this Thursday, May 1st, is the Italian Pietro Parolin, with a 23% chance. The second favorite is Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, with a 19% chance. However, on the day of Francisco’s death, Pietro Parolin had a 38% chance, while Luis Antonio Tagle had a 32% chance.
The situation is currently more divided. Peter Turkson from Ghana has a 15% chance, although he was previously in a lower position, but he was already among the favorites. Matteo Zuppi from Italy has a 12% chance. Péter Erdõ from Hungary has a 7% chance and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, also from Italy, has a 6% chance this Thursday.
Betting odds for the election of the new pope
| Name | Country | Current Probability (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 23 |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 19 |
| Peter Turkson | Gana | 15 |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 12 |
| Péter Erdõ | Hungary | 7 |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | Italy | 6 |
Definition of odds
Ricardo Magri, an iGaming specialist, stated: “Like every ‘odd’ offered, a mathematical calculation is made based on a set of probabilities, closed or open”.
He explained that, in this calculation, analysts consider factors such as history, external conditions, news, age of candidates and any public information to adjust the probability forecast used in the odds offered.
International bookmakers, especially those from the United Kingdom and the United States, are promoting bets related to the election of the new pope. In Brazil, Law No. 14,790/2023 forbids this type of bet. Since January of this year, the country has only authorized bets on real sporting events and online games with random results, due to recent regulations in the sector.