The fourth round of the group stage of the Conmebol Libertadores and the South American Cup will be held this week and promises to be important clashes. Betfair has indicated the chances that each Brazilian team has of advancing to the next phase and winning the title in each of the continental tournaments.
Botafogo, the current Libertadores champion, is looking to bounce back away from home and will face Carabobo in Venezuela. So far, the team has only three points. Flamengo visits Central Córdoba, while São Paulo faces Alianza Lima in Peru.
At the Castelão stadium, Fortaleza plays against Colo-Colo, and Internacional has Atlético Nacional as its opponent. Palmeiras ends the round against Cerro Porteño, in Paraguay.
In the South American, Atlético-MG travels to face Iquique. Vitória, in turn, hosts Defensa y Justicia in Salvador. Corinthians plays against América de Cali, and Grêmio faces Atlético Grau in an away match.
In Ecuador, Mushuc Runa faces Cruzeiro in a decisive duel for both teams. Fluminense travels to face San José, and Vasco plays as a visitor against Puerto Cabello.
Analysis of the chances of qualifying for the Libertadores
Betfair evaluated the probabilities of Brazilian clubs qualifying for the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores. See the percentages presented:
- Palmeiras: 99%
- São Paulo: 98%
- Bahia: 90%
- Flamengo: 88%
- Internacional: 85%
- Botafogo: 55%
Brazilians are favored to win the Libertadores
According to Betfair, Brazilian clubs occupy the top positions among the favorites to win the tournament. The percentages are:
- Palmeiras: 18%
- Flamengo: 15%
- River Plate: 11%
- São Paulo: 7%
- Racing: 7%
- Internacional: 6%
- Botafogo: 6%
- Bahia: 3%
- Estudiantes: 3%
- Peñarol: 3%
- LDU: 3%
- Velez Sarsfield: 2%
- Universidad De Chile: 2%
- Atletico Nacional: 2%
- Barcelona Guayaquil: 2%
- Cerro Porteño: 2%
- Colo Colo: 2%
- Libertad: 2%
- Fortaleza: 1%
- Independiente del Valle: 1%
- Olimpia: 1%
- Alianza Lima, Bolivar, Nacional, Talleres, Atlético Bucaramanga, Universitario de Deportes, Carabobo, Central Cordoba, Deportivo Tachira, San Antonio and Sporting Cristal: less than 1% each.
South American: Corinthians is the main candidate for the title
With the elimination in the Pre-Libertadores, Corinthians now has the South American as its main objective for the season. According to Betfair, the São Paulo team appears as the main favorite for the trophy, with a 15% chance. Five other Brazilian clubs are also among the main candidates for the title:
- Corinthians: 15%
- Atlético-MG: 11%
- Grêmio: 11%
- Fluminense: 11%
- Vasco da Gama: 10%
- Cruzeiro: 7%
- Independiente: 6%
- Lanus: 4%
- America de Cali: 3%
- Defensa y Justicia: 3%
- Huracan: 3%
- Vitória: 3%
- Godoy Cruz: 2%
- Melgar: 2%
- Once Caldas: 2%
- Guarani: 2%
- Union Santa Fe: 1%
- Mushuc Runa: 1%
- Palestino: 1%
- Universidad Católica-EQU: 1%
- Deportes Iquique, Union Española, Boston River, Nacional Potosí, Academia Puerto Cabello, Atlético Grau, Caracas, Cerro Largo, Cienciano, Club San Jose, Sportivo Luqueño and Racing Montevideo: less than 1% each.
Brazilians’ ranking in the South American
Unlike the Libertadores format, only the leader of each group advances to the round of 16 of the South American. Atlético-MG, Fluminense and Grêmio have a good chance of qualifying.
The other Brazilian teams – Vasco da Gama, Corinthians, Vitória and Cruzeiro – need to win this fourth round to maintain their chances of leading the group.
Cruzeiro, specifically, depends on a win against Mushuc Runa, combined with a stumble by Unión, to avoid elimination. See the classification probabilities of the Brazilian clubs:
- Atlético-MG: 85%
- Fluminense: 74%
- Grêmio: 72%
- Vasco da Gama: 39%
- Corinthians: 22%
- Vitória: 9%
- Cruzeiro: 4%