This Wednesday (7), the start of the conclave that will decide Pope Francis‘ successor, international betting houses are registering high movement and expectations about the future leader of the 1.4 billion Catholics around the world.
Currently, Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin is the leading favorite, with over 32% of the votes. Right after him comes Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, with 16%.
Next come Ghanaian Peter Turkson and Hungarian Péter Erdo, both with 8%. The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, leads with 7%. In the race, he represents the third most relevant Italian name.
Favoritism, changes and new quotes
According to Agipronews, experts at William Hill maintain that the head-to-head between Parolin and Tagle is evenly matched. Both are priced at 3.50 after the most recent update. The previous day, Tagle was at the top of the list.
Next, Ghanaian Turkson and the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI), as well as the envoy to Ukraine, Matteo Zuppi, have 5%. A notable change in the last few hours affects Mario Grech.
The cardinal, known for his closeness to the late Jorge Mario Bergoglio, now has odds of 20, a significant reduction from the 42 registered a week ago.
Betting on “White Smoke” Day
Furthermore, international analysts are betting on the date of the announcement of the new Pope. A short-lived conclave is expected and the white smoke could appear as early as May 8, the second predicted date, quoted at 2.10. May 9 follows with a quote of 2.75.
For the 10th, the option rises to 7. Finally, if the election takes place in the first round, today (7), the odds reach 9. Regarding the name of the new pope, the bookmakers consider Francis II as the most likely choice.
Papacy’s betting restrictions in Brazil
The international betting market has already generated more than R$100 million in predictions about the future leader of the Catholic Church. This type of bet is popular abroad, especially in the United Kingdom and the United States. However, in Brazil, these bets are not allowed.
National legislation, specifically Law No. 14,790/2023, only authorizes bets on official sporting events and virtual games, such as lotteries. Therefore, the country does not participate in these bets on the papal succession, as they do not fall within the authorized categories.
Furthermore, the conclave process remains confidential and can last several days, while international movement grows with each new update.