March Madness betting returns are expected to decline this year compared to 2024, according to estimates from H2 Gambling Capital. The research firm looks at growth rates and gross gaming revenue (GGR), as well as how March Madness could influence this year’s numbers.
The first round of NCAA March Madness men’s and women’s basketball kicked off last week, signaling the start of the most auspicious event on the U.S. sports calendar.
While the Super Bowl remains the single most bet-heavy game in U.S. sports, with an estimated $1.6 billion wagered on the LIX edition, basketball remains at more than a third of the overall U.S. betting handle.
This tournament typically presents operators with a great opportunity to grow their customer base and provide a welcome boost for the three-week period.
According to H2 Gambling Capital’s estimate, a total of 169 million bets are expected to take place during March Madness this year, reaching $2.9 billion. This implies a slight decline of 1.5% compared to the previous year’s tournament, after several years of consistent growth.
A slowdown in the 2025 event is also considered a given. This is due to the fact that there have been no new state-level online sports betting launches since the last tournament, which saw the market open in North Carolina.
The “Caitlin Clark effect” also boosted the 2024 result. It is worth noting that these estimates do not include bets made in prediction or lottery markets.
March Madness maintains lower fees than other sports
March Madness typically brings lower retention rates than professional sports. This is partly due to a lower percentage of bets being multiples on the same game, as a result of individual players being less well-known.
This could therefore make player props less popular. This lower retention rate can be seen in Vermont last year. There, a retention rate of just 1.14% was recorded for March Madness, compared to an 11.03% retention rate across all sports betting for the year.
H2 also estimated that the retention rate for this season’s tournament will reach 7.8%, an increase from the 7.5% estimated last year. When factoring in control estimates, this retention rate implies GGR (gross gaming revenue) revenue of $223 million, an increase of $7 million from the previous year’s estimate.
However, operators are hoping for an improved retention rate after a difficult NFL regular season that saw historically low retention margins. However, 2025 is expected to get off to a more positive start following a very strong Super Bowl performance for operators.
Who is the favorite this March Madness?
This season’s men’s competition sees the Duke Blue Devils as the favorite. The team’s main player is star player Cooper Flagg.
As for the women’s tournament, the South Carolina Gamecocks are favorites to retain their title at +240, slightly ahead of the UConn Huskies at +260. The women’s tournament saw a big boost in popularity last season.
Basketball accounts for more than a third of the US market
Basketball remains the most popular sport for bettors in the US, accounting for 32% of the US sports betting market share in 2024. H2 estimates that 16% of total basketball revenue will be from NCAA college basketball, rather than the NBA/WNBA professional leagues.
Like all sports, basketball is highly seasonal, peaking in the first quarter of the year. It then peaked in March with the March Madness competition.
Overall US gambling growth has thus slowed in the last quarter, falling to 23%, compared to 43% in the year-ago period. In December, the segment was up just 14%, compared to 52% growth in December 2023.
However, total regulated sports betting in the US increased by 39% year-on-year to reach $14.6 billion. H2 predicted continued growth through 2025, albeit at a slower rate, with 2025 forecast to grow by 20% year-on-year to around $18 billion.
